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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Even Money's NCCA Bracket Rankings

I'm running with the model I created last year (2010) for the NCAA Tournament.

It picked 26 out of 32 First Round match-ups, and 9 out of 16 Second Round match-ups. Then, the upsets came and I only got one Final Four team (Duke).

All you have to do is go through the bracket and pick the "higher ranked" team, regardless of seeding. As you will see, the top ranked teams are expected to go through, since the model is straight math and I've not geared it to pick upsets. Upsets come into play when the selection committee over/under-estimate a team.

Do tweak the selections as you see fit! Let me know how it goes for you!


Rank Team Name Conference Ten Scale / Win
1 Kansas  Big 12           8.00
2 Ohio St.  Big Ten           8.00
3 Duke  Atlantic Coast           7.20
4 San Diego St.  Mountain West           7.00
5 Utah St.  Western Athletic           6.50
6 Pittsburgh  Big East           6.40
7 BYU  Mountain West           6.30
8 Texas  Big 12           6.00
9 Arizona  Pacific 10           6.00
10 Notre Dame  Big East           6.00
11 Florida  Southeastern           5.80
12 North Carolina  Atlantic Coast           5.80
13 Syracuse  Big East           5.80
14 Belmont  Atlantic Sun           5.60
15 Purdue  Big Ten           5.60
16 Cincinnati  Big East           5.40
17 Connecticut  Big East           5.40
18 Kentucky  Southeastern           5.40
19 Richmond  Atlantic 10           5.20
20 Louisville  Big East           5.20
21 Texas A&M  Big 12           5.10
22 Wisconsin  Big Ten           5.00
23 Long Island  Northeast           4.80
24 Temple  Atlantic 10           4.80
25 Old Dominion  Colonial           4.60
26 Xavier  Atlantic 10           4.60
27 Vanderbilt  Southeastern           4.60
28 Washington  Pacific 10           4.60
29 Missouri  Big 12           4.50
30 George Mason  Colonial           4.40
31 UNLV  Mountain West           4.40
32 Memphis  Conference USA           4.40
33 UCLA  Pacific 10           4.40
34 Kansas St.  Big 12           4.30
35 Florida St.  Atlantic Coast           4.20
36 Georgetown  Big East           4.20
37 Princeton  Ivy           4.10
38 Gonzaga  West Coast           4.10
39 UAB  Conference USA           4.00
40 Georgia  Southeastern           4.00
41 Villanova  Big East           4.00
42 St. John's (NY)  Big East           4.00
43 Clemson  Atlantic Coast           4.00
44 Bucknell  Patriot           3.80
45 West Virginia  Big East           3.80
46 Hampton  Mid Eastern           3.50
47 Oakland  Summit           3.50
48 Michigan  Big Ten           3.30
49 Morehead St.  OVC           3.20
50 Marquette  Big East           3.20
51 Illinois  Big Ten           3.20
52 Butler  Horizon           3.10
53 Tennessee  Southeastern           3.00
54 Southern California  Pacific 10           3.00
55 Penn St.  Big Ten           3.00
56 Michigan St.  Big Ten           2.90
57 VCU  Colonial           2.80
58 Akron  Mid American           2.50
59 Indiana St.  Missouri Valley           2.50
60 Northern Colo.  Big Sky           2.40
61 Wofford  Southern           2.20
62 Boston U.  America East           2.00
63 St. Peter's  Metro Atlantic           1.80
64 UNC Asheville  Big South           1.30
65 UTSA  Southland           1.30
66 UC Santa Barbara  Big West           1.20
67 UALR  Sun Belt           0.80
68 Alabama St.  Southwestern           0.20