NFL 2016 Week 8 MNF Vikings Bears - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game:

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears--

1) Vikings to win by 7 points -- projected

2) Bears to lose by 8 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Vikings (-5.5 points)

4) Projected O/U 37.45

5) Actual O/U 41.00

NFL 2016 Week 4 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

This Week’s Steady Performers:

1)  Denver Broncos – won 4 out of 5 slots

2)  Cincinnati Bengals – won the two projected and the O/U

3)  Minnesota Vikings – won the two projected and split ATS (against the spread)

NFL 2016 Week 4 - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: NY Giants at Minnesota Vikings--

1) Giants to lose by 1 point -- projected
2) Vikings to win by 4 points -- projected
3) Opening Spread -- Viking -3.5
4) Projected O/U 45.70
5) Actual O/U 43.00

NFL 2015 NFC Wild Card (Seahawks vs Vikings)

The Seattle Seahawks lost six games this season. Two of these losses were to the St. Louis Rams, a division rival that seemed to have Seattle's number.

The other four were to teams that made the playoffs. In three of those four losses, the Seahawks led or tied going into the fourth quarter. In the other game, division rival, the Arizona Cardinals dominated the Seattle for most of that game. The Seahawks returned the favor in Week 17.

This playoff matchup is a repeat of a Week 13 contest where the Seattle Seahawks demolished the Minnesota Vikings. The final score was 38-7, and justifies the outlook for this meeting: Seattle At Minnesota (+4; 39.5).

The Vikings defense will determine this game. The Vikings have lost five of six games when they gave up 20 or more points. In their other 10 games, all wins, the opponent scored less than 20 points.

Minnesota also led at the half in all these games, except once when they were tied with the Chicago Bears. This was their only come from behind victory -- they trailed at the start of the fourth quarter.

The Seahawks have scored 29 or more points in 7 of 8 games, and have not scored less than 17 points in a loss. So, can the Vikings offense support its defense with 21 points?

The numbers favor the Seahawks (.737) because they have the defense to match their explosive offense.

So, I take the Seahawks (OVER). Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

Can Teddy Bridge The Gap? - NFL 2015 TNF 14

At no time does the saying "Defense wins championships" ring truer than this NFL season. Of the 12 teams that are best situated to make the playoffs, 10 of them are ranked tops in Defense. The two that are not are the division leaders for the NFC East and AFC South.

Though ranked fifth in points per game, the Minnesota Vikings defense is coming off a humbling experience, having given up 38 points this past Sunday. The Vikings also gave up 30 points in Week 11 against the Green Bay Packers.

Even before the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, coming into tonight's game, one could see what type of teams give the Vikings defense problems. The Vikings have only beaten one team that would qualify if the playoffs started today.

The Vikings are 1-4 when they give up 20 or more points. In today's NFL that type of offensive production does not work.

Minnesota has to score more and even though the focus is on Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, it is the Vikings' offensive approach that is outdated.



The days of NFL success being measured by having a dominant running back are over. Heading into Week 14:

• 2 running backs have reached 1000 yards
• 10 more running backs can reach 1000 yards for the season, provided they maintain their average weekly output
• of these 12 running backs, only 5 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today

Gone also are the days, where a quarterback throwing for 3000 yards meant the team's passing was on point.

• 12 quarterbacks have reached 3000 yards; only 4 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today
• 13 more quarterbacks can reach 3000 yards for the season, provided they maintain their average weekly output

Minnesota Vikings Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (2398 yards) sits near the bottom of the 25 quarterbacks on pace to reach 3000 yards. Since this is only his second year in the NFL, there is much time for improvement.

With the playoffs on the horizon, an ailing defense and tonight's matchup - Minnesota At Arizona (-10.5; 46.5) - how soon can Teddy bridge the gap of a past NFL era to today's, where dominance is measured by throwing for 4000 yards?

Of the 21 quarterbacks on pace to throw for 4000 yards, 9 of their teams would qualify if the playoffs started today. This, in itself, is a great measuring stick because the other two quarterbacks and teams that fall short do so because of injuries.

Bridgewater has the opportunities and accuracy but needs to improve on his longer passes, particularly with a dominant running back, Adrian Peterson who leads the NFL in Rushing Yards.

The numbers point toward the Arizona Cardinals (.632) to win by 9 points, and that 3 out of the 4 times the Vikings lost, they did so by 17 or more points.

So, I take Cardinals (OVER) because I see Vikings getting 17 points - not enough to outduel Cardinals. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then get on up and take it to the bridge.

Can Green Bay Lead from the Middle of the Pack? NFL 2015 TNF 12

The Green Bay Packers are in a precarious position. They are competing for playoff positioning against two teams: the Minnesota Vikings and the Arizona Cardinals.

Each of these 3 teams have 3 "should win games" on their schedule and they face one another in the coming weeks. Arizona is one game ahead of Green Bay in the NFC, and Green Bay is tied with Minnesota in the NFC North division.

So, Chicago at Green Bay (-8, 45) is not the game for the Packers to try reverting to the style of play from the early part of this season when they won their first 6 games.

The Packers have to come to terms that they are a team that lost 3 games in a row. This past Sunday's win against the Minnesota Vikings put them back on the right track but they are not fully back. Gone should be, in their memory, the attitude they should win games by 10 points.

If the playoffs were to start today, 5 of the 7 teams the Packers beat would not qualify. The Packers defense gives up too many yards. During the first 6 games, they scored first and were able to control the pace. Most of the teams they beat did not feature high octane offenses, which meant the Packers defense could take risks to force TurnOvers.

In today's game, they face a Chicago Bears team that technically cannot hurt them on offense. The Bears are content to score 23 points and let their defense handle the rest.

The Packers beat the Bears 31 - 23 in this year's earlier matchup. The Bears defense has improved since early in the season. Their focus is to not allow big passing plays, which could be seen as a test for Aaron Rodgers.

Conversely, Green Bay can see this as an opportunity to put the past behind them and be content to mainly rush the ball. This will limit the amount of time their defense is on the field.

The numbers point to a win by Green Bay (.842) but not covering the spread, because the Packers are more comfortable in high scoring games. As such, look for that slim chance of a Bears victory (.158).

I take Bears (OVER) even though I see a Packers victory. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then watch out for the leader of the pack.

NFL 2015 Week 7 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Vikings vs Lions)

The Minnesota Vikings are, at the moment, in a four team race for the Wild Card. Today's matchup - Minnesota at Detroit (-1; 45) - starts a four-game stretch of must win games.

After these games, the Vikings will then face four NFC teams with playoff possibilities. Now that we have the big picture, Minnesota's current focus is a Detroit Lions team that won its first game last week.

The Lions have underachieved. Though they score 20 points per game, they are more likely to score 17 points while giving up 28.7 points per game.

Adrian Peterson is questionable for the game, which would impact the Vikings' ability to take advantage of Detroit's weak defense. In their previous matchup (Week 2), the Vikings won 26-16 and Peterson rushed for 134 yards.

To counter, can Matthew Stafford challenge the Vikings defense? Stafford has thrown 10 TDs and 9 INTs, and the Vikings defense is vulnerable to both the passing and running game. Theirs is a bend but don't break defense -- second in the NFL, giving up only 16.6 points per game.

The numbers break to Vikings (.842) to win by 2 points and Lions (.158) to lose by 9 points.

So, I take the Vikins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

Even Money’s NFL PICKS: Saints vs Vikings

Saints defeated the Vikings in last season’s NFC Championship game - an overtime thriller, by the score of 31-28. The Saints went on to beat the Indianapolis Colts to win Superbowl XLIV.

Though repeating as Superbowl Champions is no small feat, the Saints bring back most of their core, including Quaterback Drew Brees. Look for the Saints to continue with their offensive prowess, where they scored 24+ points in their first 13 games last season. They were 5-0 ATS when favored by less than 7 points, showing they performed well when “questioned”.

Full Article

Even Money’s Picks: Saints vs Vikings NFC championship game 2010

Saints vs Vikings is the highly anticipated NFC Championship game that features two high-powered offenses that scored 24+ points in all their wins. The Minnesota Vikings lost only 1 game where they scored that much and all 3 games they did not. The New Orleans Saints lost their last 3 games of the season and they scored less than 24 points in each of them.

With each offense featuring a Pro-Bowl Quarterback in Brett Favre and Drew Brees, the game will come down to which defense makes the early stop.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s Picks: Jets vs Colts AFC championship game 2010

Jets vs Colts in the AFC Championship game? What were those odds when the season started? For the New York Jets to beat the Indianapolis Colts, they need to look at the film of 3 games. The New York Jets defense is comparable to the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens; and to a certain degree, they share offensive philosophies, especially with the Ravens.

Though the Jets have to play a conservative offensive game, the Indianapolis Colts failed to score 27+ points in only 4 games this season.

FULL ARTICLE

Will New Orleans Saints ‘Brees’ Through NFL Playoffs 2010?

Vikings vs Saints will determine career and a legacy. For the New Orleans Saints, a win in the NFC Championship (NFL Playoffs 2010) means the capital “S” can never again be left out of their team name. If Drew Brees wins a Super Bowl XLIV then any future passing numbers and wins he puts up has his career discussed in Hall of Fame terms.

The Saints will win if they make the first half more about the running game for both teams and lessen the number of times Brett Favre passes the ball.

FULL ARTICLE

Will Favre, Vikings Win NFL Playoffs NFC Championship?

Vikings vs Saints is what it comes down to in this year’s NFC Championship game. This marquee NFL playoff matchup could be Brett Favre’s final NFL game. Favre and the Minnesota Vikings will win the NFC Championship and head into Super Bowl XLIV only if they are able to keep the New Orleans Saints from scoring 24 points. The Vikings have shown that they can be stopped when playing a team with a good defense but they have not proven they can stop a potent offense.

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Cowboys vs Vikings – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Cowboys vs Vikings is the early game on Sunday for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round. It features a Minnesota Vikings team that rose early to prominence in the NFC, and a Dallas Cowboys team that finished strong. This is the game to keep your money away from but it might be the most profitable if you make the right choice.

The Dallas Cowboys silenced their critics who claimed they could not win in December by relying on a defensive unit that gave up more than 21 points only 2 times this season.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s NFL PICKS Week 16: Favre, Vikings vs Bears, Monday Night Football

Vikings vs Bears is the matchup for NFL Picks Week 16 Monday Night Football and we get a peek at Brett Favre days after he usurped all power from Minnesota Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress. Tonight’s battle against the Chicago Bears has more playoff implications because of the New Orleans Saints’ second loss of the season.

The Minnesota Vikings had been a steady ship all season until their loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s NFL Power Rankings – December 15, 2009

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RANK	TEAM	WINS	LOSSES	COMMENT
CONTENDERS
1	Indianapolis	13	0	Colts Defense and steadiness as exhibited by being 9-3-1 ATS puts them ahead of the other undefeated Team, New Orleans Saints.
2	New Orleans	13	0	Saints have not covered for 2 straight weeks and won by only 3 points each time. They are 8-5-0 ATS.
3	San Diego	10	3	Chargers have an 8-game winning streak and are 7-1 ATS during that stretch with wins over the Giants, Eagles, Broncos and Cowboys.

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Even Money’s NFL PICKS Week 14 Sunday – Vikings vs Bengals

Vikings vs Bengals is one of my marquee match-ups for NFL Picks Week 14. There are two inter-conference battles with huge playoff implications for all 4 teams. The Minnesota Vikings welcome the Cincinnati Bengals to the Metrodome where the Vikings are undefeated and the offense led by Brett Favre averages 31.33 points per game.

In these 6 contests the Vikings have won by an average point differential of 13.5 but that figure is a bit misleading. Recent games against the Bears, Rams and Lions skew the numbers, as the Vikings won them by 26, 27, and 26 respectively. In the early part of seasons, the wins against the Ravens, Packers and 49ers averaged a 4-point differential, and with the Vikings needing last second scores in two of them.

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Even Money’s NFL PICKS Week 13– All Sunday Games, Vikings Full Speed

Vikings vs Cardinals is my other my marquee match-ups for NFL Picks Week 13. The question is whether Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota offense can run over the Arizona Cardinals.
Minnesota (-3.5), Over (48) – Vikings have one focus - the Superbowl - and they, along with Peterson, are full speed ahead.
FULL ARTICLE