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Thursday, October 29, 2015

Patriots Walk A Thin Line - NFL 2015 TNF 8

Miami at New England (-8; 51) is a tricky game to pick. The Patriots have won 3 games by 7 points, 1 game by 8 and two others by over 24 points.

Coupled with that, when the Dolphins lose, they do so by 14 points. Since firing their head coach before their Bye week, the Dolphins have won both their games.

Though these wins come against AFC South teams with losing records, the Dolphins scored 38 and 44 points, eclipsing their previous season-high by 18 points.

Going with the theory that the Dolphins have turned the corner, the Patriots only give up 21 points per game, while scoring  a league-leading 35.5 points per game.

The question for tonight's matchup: can New England score over 30 points against a Miami defense that gives up 23 points per game?

I pick Patriots (Over) because the game is at Gillette Stadium and the past two seasons, the HOME team has won with the Patriots winning by 10 or more.

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy the message in the song.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Quoth the Raven “Nevermore.” - NFL 2015 MNF 7

Baltimore at Arizona (-10; 50) is the Ravens final trip out west for the year, where they are 0-3. Tonight we find out whether to say "Nevermore" to the Ravens' defensive identity.

Baltimore has yielded on average 27 points per game, en route to a 1-5 record that has them well out of the playoff picture. For this Monday Night Football matchup, they face the 4-2 Arizona Cardinals who are scoring 33.33 per game.

In amassing those offensive numbers, the Cardinals have not beaten a team with a .500 or better record. Overall, Arizona is giving up under 20 points a game.

So the question is whether the Ravens can score 23 points tonight. The Ravens average just shy of 24 points per game and have scored 23 or more 4 times in their 6 games.

The Cardinals should win this game but the 10 points are a bit much because the Ravens have not lost by more than 6 points all season.

So, I take Ravens (Under).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this reading of The Raven by James Earl Jones.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

NFL 2015 Week 7 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Vikings vs Lions)


The Minnesota Vikings are, at the moment, in a four team race for the Wild Card. Today's matchup - Minnesota at Detroit (-1; 45) - starts a four-game stretch of must win games.

After these games, the Vikings will then face four NFC teams with playoff possibilities. Now that we have the big picture, Minnesota's current focus is a Detroit Lions team that won its first game last week.

The Lions have underachieved. Though they score 20 points per game, they are more likely to score 17 points while giving up 28.7 points per game.

Adrian Peterson is questionable for the game, which would impact the Vikings' ability to take advantage of Detroit's weak defense. In their previous matchup (Week 2), the Vikings won 26-16 and Peterson rushed for 134 yards.

To counter, can Matthew Stafford challenge the Vikings defense? Stafford has thrown 10 TDs and 9 INTs, and the Vikings defense is vulnerable to both the passing and running game. Theirs is a bend but don't break defense -- second in the NFL, giving up only 16.6 points per game.

The numbers break to Vikings (.842) to win by 2 points and Lions (.158) to lose by 9 points.

So, I take the Vikins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

How The NFC West Was Lost - NFL 2015 TNF 7

No NFC West team has beaten a team with a winning record, except for San Francisco's Week 1 win against the Minnesota Vikings. To their defense, these losses have come to teams that are likely to win their division.

The major blemish on the Seattle Seahawks record is the loss to division rival St. Louis Rams, a team that also beat NFC West division leading Arizona Cardinals.

So, what ails the Seahawks? They fade in the second half of games, particularly the 4th quarter where they're attempting to nurse the lead, as opposed to blow the opponent away.

The San Francisco 49ers' made wholesale changes in the off-season and are led by rookie head coach by Jim Tomsula. Under this new regime, Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is being asked to do more. This has led to an increase in Interceptions and Fumbles.

The main concern for San Francisco is defensive identity, as in which team will come to play. Will it be the one that has given 30+ points in 3 games? Or the one that has held opponents to 20 or less in 3 games.

The question for tonight's game - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5; 42.5) - Can the 49ers offense score over 20 points against the Seahawks defense?

I take Seahawks (UNDER), not knowing which Niners defense shows up. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

NFL 2015 Week 6 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Redskins vs Jets)

The New York Jets can decide their playoff fate by beating the Washington Redskins in today's matchup. A win today and then going, at least, .500 for the rest of the season puts the Jets in control of their chances for a Wild Card spot in the AFC.

Coming into the season, only the most die-hard of fans would have predicted a chance to have a 4-1 record after today's game. With the entire league splitting into a top tier of six teams and another filled with inconsistent wanderers, the Jets Defense have put them in a position to succeed.

Faced with the absence of their starting Quarterback, New York's defense leads the league in Points Against (13.8) and ranks Top 10 in other key defensive categories (Yards, Passing, Rushing and Interceptions).

This bodes well against the Washington Redskins, who only score 19.4 points per game. Both teams run a balanced offense but have had more success Rushing the ball.

Washington's losses have  come late in the game, mainly due to turnovers (Interceptions). The game will be decided by which team's Defense and Special Teams perform better.

This gives the Jets the edge to win the game but the line is currently at Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-8; 40). This movement from the starting line at -5.5 is due to injuries to key Redskins players, mainly Offensive Lineman Trent Williams and Running Back Matt Jones.

Without these factors, this was a toss-up game. With them, the numbers break to Jets (.368) and Redskins (.632).

So, I take the Redskins (UNDER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and enjoy this playlist/mix.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Atlanta Falcoms - Fly Like An Eagle NFL 2015 TNF 6


Atlanta Falcons At New Orleans Saints (+3; 52.5) is a game the Falcons (5-0) must win. The Falcons have to keep pace with two other NFC division leaders- Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals.

Winning tonight and the next 5 weeks while hoping the Packers falter will be what keeps them from having to travel to Lambeau Field in the dead of winter.

The Falcons also have to be mindful of division rival Carolina Panthers who are also undefeated at 4-0. The Panthers have a tougher schedule these next few weeks, until the two teams meet but nothing is a given.

The Falcons have mounted comebacks in three of their wins, and give up 22.4 points per game, which currently ranks them 15th in the league. They have scored 32.4 points per game, which is likely what they will score tonight.

The New Orleans Saints are having a horrible season, with Quarterback Drew Brees playing through injury. They are currently 1-4 and on paper, at best, I see the Saints winning 6 more games this season.

The Saints are giving up 28.6 points per game and scoring 20.6 points per game, with their highest output being 26 points.

I take Falcons (OVER) and pray they stay above the fray, continuing to fly like an eagle. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Chargers Playing Second Fiddle - NFL 2015 MNF 5

Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup features two teams who are at 2-2 and are conceivably playing for a Wild Card Playoff spot, as both their division leaders are sitting at 5-0.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there is a built-in excuse, an injury to their starting quarterback. The Chargers, on the other hand, have not had a 10-win season since LaDainian Tomlinson left after the 2009 season.

Since then, San Diego has only made the playoffs once and have not won the AFC West. First, it was close finishes the Kansas City Chiefs, but lately the Chargers have been mostly playing second fiddle to the Chiefs and the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning.

The Chargers are basically hitched to Philip Rivers until the end of his contract (app. $82 million) in 2019. They will continue to go as Rivers goes. This year they have won both their HOME games and lost both their AWAY games.

Defensively, they have given up, at least, 24 points each game. Their opponent, the Pittsburgh Steelers, only gave up more than 24 points once in four games -- to the New England Patriots.

The line is Pittsburgh Steelers At San Diego Chargers (-4; 45.5). The Chargers do play high scoring games, and except for one game this season, the Steelers have combined for 43 or more points.

The numbers show Steelers winning by up to 4 points, and the Chargers with a very slim chance to win by 1 point.

So, I take Steelers (Over).  Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

NFL 2015 Week 5 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Seahawks vs Bengals)

Of all the intriguing matchups for NFL 2015 Week 5, Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals  (-3; 44) promises to be the game to decide two divisions and Super Bowl contention. If the Bengals win, barring a major injury, then the other teams in the AFC North are essentially playing for a Wild Card spot.

This win would put the Bengals at 5-0 and potentially 3 games ahead of the next team, if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose this week. Cincinnati has to keep pace with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, when it comes to playoff home-field advantage in the AFC.

With the Seahawks having represented the NFC in the past two years, this is the Bengals' first true test for that next level. The prior wins -- all AFC contests -- have determined whether they should be in this discussion.

This game decides whether or not they remain a viable threat to play in the Super Bowl. For Seattle, sleep time is over. The Seahawks have been sleepwalking through the season like a team that ate too much of a carb-filled meal.

So far, nothing has knocked the chip off their shoulder, the one they think guarantees them another Super Bowl appearance. To their defense, the Seahawks have not had a reason to wake up. Yes, they faced the Green Bay Packers earlier this season. In all honesty, that game meant much more to Green Bay and the late game execution confirms this.

Seattle has taken two early season losses in stride and they've turned it on against two underwhelming teams. The two wins were at HOME and the two losses AWAY.

Today's game: AWAY. It is also the first inter-conference game for both teams. It is not a game that one can say defense will matter more than offense, and vice versa.

This will simply be a hitting game, a playoff level intensity that the Bengals have faced twice this season -- San Diego Chargers and Baltimore Ravens. Both times, the Cincinnati Bengals got off to early scoring starts and held on for victories. A better way of framing it: the Bengals play all four quarters; the Seahawks, not so much.

At the end of the day, it comes down the passing game. Which quarterback will have more success? More precisely: can Russell Wilson expose what has been the Cincinatti Bengals weak spot?

I rarely call PUSH but with the line at -3 and a game likely to be 27-24. Which team do you think wins by a Field Goal?

I have the numbers as Seattle (.737) to win by 7 points, and the Bengals (.263) to win by 2 points.

Under those terms, I take the Seahawks (Over 44).

Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

Thursday, October 08, 2015

Houston Texans - Desperate Times NFL 2015 TNF 5

A tale of two desperate teams: Indianapolis Colts At Houston Texans (-0.5; 41) might just bring a memorable night for the Houston franchise. This is a night where low expectations for the season collide with the reality that the division is there for the taking.

For an expansion franchise, the Houston Texans have seen some good times - two playoff appearances since their birth in 2002. They've only suffered two true expansion team-like seasons, with records of 2-14 in 2003 and 2013. After the latter, they decided to gut the team and start fresh and ended up with a surprising 9-7 record last season, mainly under the legs of Arian Foster.

With starting Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick gone and Foster injured, the Texans have struggled to a 1-3 record. Foster came back last week but did not see much playing time.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts the Colts are struggling this year, under the weight of expectations and an injury to starting Quarterback Andrew Luck.
This is a tough game to call, except the UNDER. The early numbers all point to Houston because they're at home, but as one pulls away and rely on history, Indianapolis balances things out.

Though a 50-50 split on the win, the Colts are at .684 to win by 3 points and the Texans at .316 to win by 2 points.

So, I take COLTS (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.
  1. Charlie Robison - Desperate Times
  2. Randy Rogers Band - Buy Myself A Chance
  3. Fat Pat - Tops Drop

Monday, October 05, 2015

Seahawks, Legion in Bloom - NFL 2015 MNF 4

Detroit Lions At Seattle Seahawks (-10; 43) finds the Lions at a critical juncture in their season. The Green Bay Packers are running away with the NFC North division. A loss tonight puts Detroit at 0-4 and at risk to even qualify for the Wild Card.

The numbers favor the Seahawks to win by 2 points (.625) or the Lions to lose by 1 point (.375). No scenario where Lions will win.
So, I take Seahawks (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Sunday, October 04, 2015

NFL 2015 Week 4 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Giants vs Bills)

NY Giants at Buffalo  (-6; 46) means more to the Buffalo Bills season, simply because the Bills have to keep pace with the New England Patriots.

The Patriots have won the AFC East 11 out of the past 12 seasons. The lone season - 2008 - they did not win it was due to a tie-breaker.

The goal is not so much that the Bills have to win the division, but that they have to win 11 games in order to be in competition for a Wild Card spot in the conference.

On the other hand, the Giants' NFC East division will likely take 10 wins to win and all the teams are and will continue to be bunched up throughout the season.

A win for the Giants will place them at 2-2 and a possible three-way tie for first place. A loss will, at most, put them 2 games behind the division leader, only if the Dallas Cowboys win today.

Playoff picture notwithstanding, this is a fantastic offensive matchup. At the end of the day, either or both teams would have answered whether it's for real. Do opponents have to worry about 24 points each time they face them?

The Buffalo Bills have scored 27 or more points all 3 games this season, including in the loss to the Patriots. In that game, they trailed by 24 points and scored 19 of their 32 points in the fourth quarter.

In the other two games, the Bills have scored, at least, 24 points in the first three quarters. This is the challenge for the New York Giants who have scored 20 or less in the first three quarters in their 3 games.

With the Giants defense giving up 24 points a game and to lesser offenses, I take the Bills (Over 46).

Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist/mix.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Steelers, Michael Vick: Keep On Moving - NFL 2015 TNF 4

Michael Vick and the Pittsburgh Steelers can put the final nail in the Baltimore Ravens season. They really have to if they want to secure their own playoff lives.

The AFC North is the only NFL division that has had two different teams win the Super Bowl this current decade. Teams in this division beat up on each other and, in many ways, either toughen each other up for the playoffs or hurt the other's chances of winning the Super Bowl.

The Baltimore Ravens do not have the same level of defense as their heyday. Even with that fact, I never envisioned them as an 0-3 team. The only true chance they have tonight is that Michael Vick is the Steelers starting quarterback.

In many ways, this does not leave the Ravens with much of a chance, though they're favored. The plan is, as always, contain Vick in the pocket or line of scrimmage, forcing him to be a passer.

With the Ravens giving up nearly 300 Passing Yards Per Game and under 90 Rushing Yards Per Game, this will be a battle of wills.

Both teams have been more comfortable and productive in the passing game. That is where the advantage goes to Baltimore in light of the injury to Ben Roethlisberger.

The question tonight: Can Michael Vick attack the Baltimore secondary?

For scoring, the numbers has this game as toss-up, a two-point margin across both sides of the line, which means Ravens would not cover the 3 points in a win. The percentages has it: Pittsburgh Steelers (.789) and the Baltimore Ravens (.211).

So, I go with Steelers (+3; Under 44).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.