NFL 2016 Week 5 TNF: Cards Niners - Hedging the Straight Line

For tonight's game: 
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

1) Cardinals to win by 7 points -- projected

2) Niners to lose by 8 points -- projected

3) Opening Spread -- Cardinals -3.5

4) Projected O/U 44.14

5) Actual O/U 42.00

Rams, Niners, A New Day - NFL 2016 MNF 1

"I’m talking about the Kaepernick Revolution that is currently underway. In short, we need a new National Anthem, one written by a non-bigot."

--Doni Glover

How The NFC West Was Lost - NFL 2015 TNF 7

No NFC West team has beaten a team with a winning record, except for San Francisco's Week 1 win against the Minnesota Vikings. To their defense, these losses have come to teams that are likely to win their division.

The major blemish on the Seattle Seahawks record is the loss to division rival St. Louis Rams, a team that also beat NFC West division leading Arizona Cardinals.

So, what ails the Seahawks? They fade in the second half of games, particularly the 4th quarter where they're attempting to nurse the lead, as opposed to blow the opponent away.

The San Francisco 49ers' made wholesale changes in the off-season and are led by rookie head coach by Jim Tomsula. Under this new regime, Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is being asked to do more. This has led to an increase in Interceptions and Fumbles.

The main concern for San Francisco is defensive identity, as in which team will come to play. Will it be the one that has given 30+ points in 3 games? Or the one that has held opponents to 20 or less in 3 games.

The question for tonight's game - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5; 42.5) - Can the 49ers offense score over 20 points against the Seahawks defense?

I take Seahawks (UNDER), not knowing which Niners defense shows up. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2015 Week 2 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (49ers vs Steelers)

San Francisco  at Pittsburgh  (-6.5; 45.5) is this week's game for many reasons. First, it is a toast to those who make a living picking the Steelers to cover any spread over 3 points. If you're that person, then please let me rub your head for good luck.

The second reason this game is a premier matchup: two storied franchises who no longer rule their division, let alone their conference. For Pittsburgh, they have been up and down, where on any given Sunday, they can lose to the Tampa Bay Bucs or Cleveland Browns. Most times, they are being tested by some of the NFL's premier teams and that is when their best comes out.

So, against San Francisco, look for the Steelers to show that this season's opener against the New England Patriots is indicative of what you will see this season.

Even though the Steelers lost that game, they showed just how good a team has to be to best them.

Is San Francisco that good? This question leads into why this is the Game of the Week. Both these teams have a three-way battle ahead for supremacy within their division. Unlike the Steelers, the 49ers are considered a distant third, until they beat a formidable opponent.

Last Monday's win over the hapless Minnesota Vikings did not tell much, so look for the Niners to really try to open up the offense, which might lead to quite a few turnovers, playing right into Pittsburgh's hands.

The Over/Under should not be an issue, at roughly 31-20 for the Steelers.

This is a great test for both teams. Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2012, Week 3: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/23/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line
WEEK 3		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
Carolina Panthers		New York Giants	2.05		8.77	46.0
Chicago Bears		St. Louis Rams	-9.80		-5.02	59.0
Cleveland Browns		Buffalo Bills	-5.61		0.67	59.0
Indianapolis Colts		Jacksonville Jaguars	5.70		0.96	64.0
Dallas Cowboys		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.07		10.54	66.0
Miami Dolphins		New York Jets	12.99		9.08	50.0
Minnesota Vikings		San Francisco 49ers	2.91		-0.56	50.0
New Orleans Saints		Kansas City Chiefs	-7.03		-10.33	47.0
Tennessee Titans		Detroit Lions	9.91		1.10	50.0
Washington Redskins		Cincinnati Bengals	-10.74		0.35	66.0
Arizona Cardinals		Philadelphia Eagles	-4.55		-5.94	47.0
San Diego Chargers		Atlanta Falcons	4.41		7.62	44.0
Denver Broncos		Houston Texans	4.34		-3.63	36.0
Oakland Raiders		Pittsburgh Steelers	1.61		0.60	47.0
Baltimore Ravens		New England Patriots	-6.84		-9.69	57.0
Seattle Seahawks		Green Bay Packers	0.70		6.54	47.0

Week 6, 2011: Lions vs 49ers by EvenMoney

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions is this week’s spotlight game, in a week with at least 8 other matchups we could have chosen. To think in Weeks 1 and 2 when we covered both these teams, we did so to lay down the gauntlet and they both responded. In Week 1 the Lions won and have maintained that pace - currently at 5-0. In Week 2, though the 49ers lost, the result was a Push (at 3 points) and similar to the Detroit Lions, they sit atop their division (with a 4-1 record).

This week’s game means the same thing to both teams, in that, any misstep, doubt could creep in and give their closest division competitor a chance to wrest control out of their hands. This is more of a concern for the Lions because the defending Super Bowl Champions – the Green Bay Packers – are also 5-0. The two teams will play 2 times, and if they should split, then the overall record and record within the conference will be the key factors in which team is crowned.

Courtesy of ZMRinzler

For the 49ers, they have a two-game division lead over the Seattle Seahawks. As we stated before, the NFC West will only send one team to the playoffs. Avoid any sort of losing streak, a playoff slot is theirs. A win against the Lions (pretty much) guarantees the 49ers, a 10-win season; within the NFC West, that is a playoff lock. A loss will tilt them to 9 wins or less, something the Seahawks could achieve.

The two teams are evenly matched in output: Scoring PPG (Lions 31.8; 49ers 28.4), and Defense (Points Against – Lions 17.8; 49ers 15.6). The difference is how each team goes about scoring. For the Detroit Lions, it’s an all-out air assault that has them Top 10 in Attempts, Completions, Percentage, Yardage and TDs (#3).

HIGHLIGHTS – Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Week 5, 2011

The Lions are doing this behind the arm and on the shoulders of QuarterBack Matthew Stafford who is just 13 yards shy of 300 per game, and has a 3:1 TD/INT ratio.

Contrast this with the 49ers who are winning because of their Rushing defense and offense. They have relegated QuarterBack Alex Smith to a ball-control, manager type. Smith is ranked 29^th out of NFL QB’s in Attempts (126) and YPG (193). He’s more prone to take the Sack (14) than throw an INT (1). So, how are the 49ers producing offense? Answer: Frank Gore (80 YPG) and Kendall Hunter (27 YGG).

HIGHLIGHTS – San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 5, 2011

As a team, the 49ers are ranked 7^th in Rushing Attempts and 32^nd in Passing Attempts. They take this imbalanced offense into Detroit to face a Lions team that is balanced on defense. Their Pass defense is superior to their Rush defense, and it is tested the most by opponents. Though the Lions Rusing defense gives up a lot of yards per game and per carry, they’ve only given up 1 TD all season.

NFL PICKS Week 6

49ers (+4) Under (46) – Comparison of common opponent as well as the quality of opponents; the Lions are coming off a Monday Night Football appearance; and that extra point where a Field Goal doesn’t do it ATS (against the spread).

10/16 1:00 ET At Detroit -4 San Francisco 46

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @10/15/11 @ 10:00pm

Week 2, 2011: Cowboys vs 49ers by EvenMoney

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers is a major test for both teams and has playoff implications. Yes, this early in the season! The NFC East will send two teams and the NFC West will only send one. A win over Dallas puts the Niners on pace for at least a 9-win season, which should be enough to win the NFC West.

Contrast that to Dallas which needs at least 10 wins to even think of claiming a Wild Card spot. The Cowboys tossed away a win in the final minutes in Week 1 against the Jets. They showed an ability to pass the ball with Tony Romo going for 342 yard on 64% completion. For the most part, the Cowboys handled the Jets’ various blitz packages, including on 3^rd & long.

HIGHLIGHTS - Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets Week 1, 2011

The Cowboys defense played well. They stifled the Jets’ run game and matched the Jets’ 4 sacks. Dallas lost the game on penalties, turnovers and Special Teams.

On the other side of the field, they will face a 49ers team that had an impressive defensive outing against the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks won the NFC West in 2010 but with only a 7-9 record, which demonstrates why this division is there for the taking and will likely only send one team to the playoffs.

Courtesy of frostwd

For the 49ers, QuarterBack Alex Smith had an efficient outing where he completed 75% of his 20 passes. The defense set the pace early by holding the Seahawks scoreless for the first half, as the Niners went on to lead 16-0 at the half. And, the Special Teams converted on two big plays (kick and put returns) for touchdowns to squelch a Seahawks comeback with the score at 19-17.

HIGHLIGHTS - San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Week 1, 2011

Picking this game is about determining the quality of opponent that the 49ers faced last week. Dallas showed they could control the ball and pass against a highly-touted Jets defense. Both teams have to answer these questions:

***Since neither team showed a running game in Week 1, can both QBs maintain their efficiency?

***Or, will Special Teams once again play a major role?

NFL PICKS Week 2

Cowboys (-3) Over (42) – Felix Jones will establish himself, as Dallas dominates time of possession.

9/18 4:05 ET Dallas -3 At San Francisco 42

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @09/17/11 @ 9:40pm

Monday Night Football – Cardinals vs 49ers – Even Money’s NFL Picks

Cardinals vs 49ers is tonight’s match-up for NFL Picks Week 14 Monday Night Football. The Arizona Cardinals can clinch the NFC West division tonight with a win over the San Francisco 49ers. When last we saw the Cardinals, they kicked the Vikings all over the field and showed a renewed focus to end the season.

Last season, though the Cardinals made it to the Super Bowl, they limped their way through the December games. They also have that luxury this season because the NFC West is arguably the worst in the NFL. No other team is at or above .500.

FULL ARTICLE