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Monday, September 28, 2015

Alex Smith, Time 4 Sum Aksion - NFL 2015 MNF 3

Tonight's Monday Night Football game of Kansas City At Green Bay (-5.5; 47.5) has all sorts of marketing angles, especially after both teams participated in two come-from-behind wins in their last game.

Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs, they came out on the losing hand, mainly due to TurnOvers and the Referees extending the game in the last two minutes with some dubious calls.

The Chiefs have something major going for them -- their offense moved the ball well in both games, either in the Passing or Rushing game. Plus, their Defense has been solid.

The big question mark for the Chiefs is Alex Smith. Does he have what it takes to push to that next level?

On paper and just sheer visuals, Smith's counterpart, Aaron Rodgers is a better Quarterback. Rodgers's success is linked to a Green Bay Packers offensive system that calls on him to throw more and be accountable for all the mistakes, including taking a high number of Sacks.

For the Kansas City to beat Green Bay, they will need to score more by passing more.

The numbers favor the Packers to win by 7 points (.715) or the Chiefs to defy the odds and win by 4 points (.285).

So, I take Packers (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

NFL 2015 Week 3 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Ravens vs Bengals)

Cincinnati at Baltimore  (-1.5; 45.5) promises to be a battle and has the potential to be a season ending game for the Baltimore Ravens. Losing this game would put them at 0-3 and push their division rival, the Cincinnati Bengals to 3-0.

The Bengals are Top 5 in Scoring, Passing and Rushing. Even if one makes the claim that they have faced two AFC West teams that don't have a Defense like the Ravens, the question then becomes how good is the Ravens Defense?

Last week, the Oakland Raiders aired them out, in a shootout game where the Ravens trailed by 10 points early in the first quarter. To their credit, the Ravens Offense woke up and surpassed the Raiders output.

The Bengals Defense has performed better across the board than the Ravens and the Bengals beat the Ravens twice last season.

With all that, why pick the Ravens, not only to win but to cover the Spread? Reason: the Ravens have not lost their first three games of any season under John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco at Quarterback.

Lastly, the numbers are Cincinnati Bengals win by 2 points (.333) or the Baltimore Ravens win by 5 points (.667)

I go with Ravens (Under). Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

What Has Eli Done For You Lately - NFL 2015 TNF 3

Eli Manning and the New York Giants are on the ropes but it truly feels like Ali's rope-a-dope strategy gone wrong. The Giants should be 2-0 going into tonight's matchup against the Washington Redskins.

The Redskins should have the same record, instead of being 1-1. At Giants (-3.5; 44), something's got to give when two NFC East stalworths that have fallen on hard times vie for a division championship.

The NFC East division will be contested until the final week of the season, partly and mainly due to the injury suffered by Dallas Cowboys Quarterback Tony Romo and the Philadelphia Eagles being in a somber slumber.

The Cowboys will patch holes. The Eagles will rise. For the Redskins to keep pace, they have to maintain their conservative, ball control approach.

The Giants, on the other hand, have to put it all on the line and open up the offense even more, relying on their star Quarterback Eli Manning.

The Defensive edge goes to the Redskins, though they have faced two lesser offenses, both games at Home. This is a tough pick no matter how you slice it.

The Giants won both meetings last season, which keeps them as a Home favorite, where the Redskins can lose by 7 points or the Giants lose by 1 point.

So, I go with Giants (Under).  Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Can I Get A Jets Fan? - NFL 2015 MNF 2

Upset-minded fans are looking at tonight's matchup of New York Jets At Indianapolis (-6.5; 45) as a continuation of yesterday's many unexpected results. It's really a split decision when it comes to the two true upsets and what the Jets have in common with those teams.

The Tampa Bay Bucs as an AWAY team, slated to lose by roughly 10 points was at best a 50% chance to not lose by that many. The Bucs did better than that and actually won the game. In recent years, the Bucs when faced with such spreads have pulled off similar upsets.

The Oakland Raiders at HOME lost the first week and were expected to lose again. As the Bucs, the Raiders are a team often faced with long odds. What the numbers couldn't pick up from yesterday's game is that the Ravens stayed out on the west coast after Week 1's game.

Neither of these are factors for the New York Jets. We then have to consider what the New York Jets showed last week on their way to their win, which was mainly propelled by knocking out the Cleveland Browns' starting Quarterback.

For the Colts, they get a pass because the Buffalo Bills put up points and are tough at home.

The numbers are not convincing for either team - Colts to win by 4 and Jets to lose by 6.

So, I go with Colts (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

NFL 2015 Week 2 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (49ers vs Steelers)

San Francisco  at Pittsburgh  (-6.5; 45.5) is this week's game for many reasons. First, it is a toast to those who make a living picking the Steelers to cover any spread over 3 points. If you're that person, then please let me rub your head for good luck.

The second reason this game is a premier matchup: two storied franchises who no longer rule their division, let alone their conference. For Pittsburgh, they have been up and down, where on any given Sunday, they can lose to the Tampa Bay Bucs or Cleveland Browns. Most times, they are being tested by some of the NFL's premier teams and that is when their best comes out.

So, against San Francisco, look for the Steelers to show that this season's opener against the New England Patriots is indicative of what you will see this season.
Even though the Steelers lost that game, they showed just how good a team has to be to best them.

Is San Francisco that good? This question leads into why this is the Game of the Week. Both these teams have a three-way battle ahead for supremacy within their division. Unlike the Steelers, the 49ers are considered a distant third, until they beat a formidable opponent.

Last Monday's win over the hapless Minnesota Vikings did not tell much, so look for the Niners to really try to open up the offense, which might lead to quite a few turnovers, playing right into Pittsburgh's hands.

The Over/Under should not be an issue, at roughly 31-20 for the Steelers.

This is a great test for both teams. Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's pick and Enjoy this playlist.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Peyton's Last Rodeo - NFL 2015 TNF 2

This AFC West Division game will decide one thing: Are the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning done as Super Bowl contenders? This has as much to do with a great showing by the Kansas City Chiefs and amazing comeback by the San Diego Chargers, as it does Peyton Manning and retirement.

The Denver Broncos offense never really got started against the Baltimore Ravens. This happens to many teams when they face the Ravens defense. But there was a bit more to it, a lack of sync, a lack of crispiness. Peyton Manning completed 60% of his passes for just 175 Yards and 1 INT.

They managed to pull out a win because it was a sloppy offensive game for both teams.

Heading into tonight's game, that is not something the Broncos can count on. Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs demolished the Houston Texans in the first half and coasted to an easy victory. That is why Smith was under three hundred yards (243yds), while completing 66.7% of his passes, with 3 Touchdowns, ending with a QB Rating of 118.6.

The current lines are Kansas City (-3; 42.5) while I have the numbers as two strong teams where the Broncos can win by 6 or the Chiefs can win by 3, and the Over at 45. In a high scoring affair at Arrowhead Stadium and short week for both teams, I go Chiefs (Over).

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and Enjoy this playlist.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

NFL 2015 Week 1 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Saints vs Cardinals)

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5; 48.5) could decide two divisions. Seattle's stranglehold on the NFC West means that Arizona cannot start the season losing a home game. Conceivably to win the division, the Arizona Cardinals will have to win 11 or more games.

On the other side of the ball, a New Orleans Saints' loss does not put their chance to win the NFC South at much risk, but a win means they have rebounded from last season's sub-par showing and strong enough to win the division.

The Over/Under hinges on what type of game we get. If the Saints can score early and get the Cardinals to take more risks on both sides of the ball, take the Over with the Saints winning. Otherwise, take the Cardinals and the Under, results that prove the NFC West will be contested.

I really like this challenge for the Cardinals and select them with the Under. That is why this game barely edges Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills as my game of the week.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Patriots: "It Wasn't Me..." NFL 2015 TNF 1

The revival! It has been a long time since I crunched the numbers here or at Gather. What better time to start as we head into a new NFL season and a game where the recent Super Bowl Champions, New England Patriots are giving 7 points to the always battle-ready Pittsburgh Steelers.

This is a tough game to pick mainly because the Steelers don't care about the spread, your office pool or your couch. They're either going to win or lose badly; for them that mean is by at least 7.

I have the numbers as Patriots (-8.96) and Steelers (-3.24). Though there's a wide gap between these two things happening, this is a game that will be played on the margins. Will all the controversy surrounding the Patriots make them tentatve, will they come out to prove a point and put up 30+ points or will they be on the edge, rusty and primed for an upset by the Steelers -- something along the lines of giving up 27 points and losing by 3?

Lastly, consider that out of the 5 recent season openers, the HOME team has lost on1y 1 time and covered the other 4 times. Three of those winners were the defending Super Bowl Champions, with the Baltimore Ravens losing on the road.

Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and Enjoy this playlist.