The total absolute point difference for all 10 Baltimore Ravens game is 41, an average of 4.1 points. They have played 5 games in which the margin of victory was 3 points or less. Their biggest loss was by 8 points, on the road to the 9-2 Arizona Cardinals.
At 3-7 Baltimore is all but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. Heading into tonight's matchup - Baltimore At Cleveland (-4.5; 41.5) - the Ravens are without starting Quarterback Joe Flacco.
Matt Schaub is slated to start for Baltimore but for the Ravens, the defense continues to be the biggest concern. The Ravens are giving up 24.9 points per game and this Cleveland Browns team scored 33 points on them, in the game that all but doomed their season.
Oddly enough that was the only game the Browns won with Josh McCown at the helm. Cleveland is 2-8 for the season and their absolute point difference is 125, an average of 12.5. Both their wins were by 3 points.
The Browns have lost 5 games in a row while scoring 13.6 points per game. During that same stretch, the Ravens are 2-3 while scoring 20.6 per game but this was with Joe Flacco at quarterback.
The question: Can Baltimore's defense hold the Browns to under 20 points? In games that McCown started and finished, Cleveland averages 21.5 points.
There are no numbers to predict the winner but all simulations show the Baltimore Ravens to lose by no more than 2 points.
So, I take Ravens (UNDER). Pick wisely, and come back for Thursday's picks and tonight we find out how close the Ravens are to being dominant next season.