NFL 2016 Conference Championships RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots

NFL 2016 Wild Card RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

NY Giants vs Green Bay Packers

NFL 2016 Week 16 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 16 -- Unpredictable Outcomes at the Stretch

1)  Miami Dolphins –  won 4 slots in a Projected toss-up while clinching a playoff spot.

2)  Washington Redskins – won 4 slots and with a win in Week 17 they make the playoffs.

3)  Atlanta Falcons – won 4 slots in a dominating performance and clinched the NFC South division.

NFL 2016 Week 15 RESULTS - Hedging the Straight Line

Week 15 -- Battle for divisions and precarious playoff positions.

1)  Indianapolis Colts –  won 5 slots, kept their division title hopes in play and pretty much knocked the Minnesota Vikings out of playoffs consideration.

2)  New England Patriots – won 4 slots, clinched AFC East and put a hurt on the Denver Broncos' playoff hopes.

NFL 2016 Week 7 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

Week 7 was pretty much a split between Favorites and Underdogs.

1)  New Orleans Saints – won 4 slots, lost the game and surprisingly didn't make the OVER.

2)  San Diego Chargers – won 4 slots and kept their season alive.

3)  Green Bay Packers – won the two ATS slots and the O/U

4)  Denver Broncos – won the two ATS slots and the O/U

NFL 2016 Week 5 RESULTS- Hedging the Straight Line

This Week’s Steady Performers:

1)  Buffalo Bills – won 5 out of 5 slots

2)  Arizona Cardinals – won 5 out of 5 slots

3)  New England Patriots – won the two projected and the O/U

4)  Green Bay Packers – won 5 out of 5 slots

NFL 2015 NFC Divisional Round (Packers vs Cardinals)

The Green Bay Packers are battle-tested. During the regular season, they played 6 of the 12 teams that qualified for this year's NFL playoffs. They won 3 and lost 4 of these games. They won 7 of their other 9 games.

Tonight the Packers face the Arizona Cardinals, one of the playoff teams that beat them. It was the Packers' worst loss of the season, a 38-8 drubbing where neither team bothered to score in the fourth quarter. This late season game further convinced people the Cardinals could come out of the NFC, and made more doubters for the Packers.

NFL 2015 NFC Wild Card (Packers vs Redskins)

This NFL Wildcard matchup comes down to whether the Green Bay Packers can score 24 points. In the last 8 games, Green Bay's opponents have scored 23 or fewer points in 7 games. The Packers are 4-4 during this stretch.

In the first 8 games of the season, the Packers were 6-2 and scored 24 or more points 6 times. Their only loss when scoring over 23 points was to the Carolina Panthers.

The Washington Redskins performed along these same lines. In the last 8 games, Washington's opponents have scored 23 or few points in 5 games. The Redskins are 6-2 during this stretch.

For the Redskins, the defensive turnaround coincided with that of the offense, specifically Kirk Cousins. In the first 8 games, Cousins threw 10 Touchdowns and 9 Interceptions. He threw 19 TDs and 2 INTs in the last 8 games.

Can the Packers defense contain or rattle Cousins to get the much needed Interceptions? This matchup is a classic "pick them" -- Green Bay At Washington (PK; 47).

Though the numbers tilt to the Redskins (.947), the Redskins lost 5 games to non-playoff teams. The Packers lost 2 games to non-playoff teams.

So, I take the Packers (OVER). Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

Mean Ole Lions - NFL 2015 TNF 13

The Detroit Lions have a chance to play spoiler to two division rivals in these final weeks of the NFL season. Tonight they face the Green Bay Packers who have lost 4 of their past 5 games, including a loss to Detroit.

The Lions are all but eliminated from playoff contention unless they win their final 5 games while other teams falter royally down the stretch. This is a disappointing season for the Lions who are coming off a playoff year with 11 wins.

Falling short of early expectations caused many ripples within the Lions organization. In November, the Lions fired their general manager and president. This came days after Head Coach Jim Caldwell got rid of three coaches from the offense, though statistically the drop-off has been on the defensive end. 

Last year the Lions defense gave up 282 points in 16 games (average 17.63 per game). This year they have given up 288 points in only 10 games (average 28.8 per game).

After losing their first 7 of 8 games, the Lions are on a three-game winning streak, that started with their Week 10 win over the Packers. Over this stretch the Lions defense is giving up only 14.33 points per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Green Bay Packers were riding high with a 6-0 record. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games and are struggling to find an identity on both sides of the ball.

The Detroit Lions have not beaten the Green Bay Packers twice in one season since 1999 but the Lions have won the previous two Home games against the Packers.

For this matchup, Green Bay At Detroit (+2.5; 46.5), the numbers point heavily toward the Detroit Lions (.789) to lose by no more than 1 point.

So, I take Lions (UNDER) as I see this as a toss-up game. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then listen to hear how loud the mean ole Lions roar.

Can Green Bay Lead from the Middle of the Pack? NFL 2015 TNF 12

The Green Bay Packers are in a precarious position. They are competing for playoff positioning against two teams: the Minnesota Vikings and the Arizona Cardinals.

Each of these 3 teams have 3 "should win games" on their schedule and they face one another in the coming weeks. Arizona is one game ahead of Green Bay in the NFC, and Green Bay is tied with Minnesota in the NFC North division.

So, Chicago at Green Bay (-8, 45) is not the game for the Packers to try reverting to the style of play from the early part of this season when they won their first 6 games.

The Packers have to come to terms that they are a team that lost 3 games in a row. This past Sunday's win against the Minnesota Vikings put them back on the right track but they are not fully back. Gone should be, in their memory, the attitude they should win games by 10 points.

If the playoffs were to start today, 5 of the 7 teams the Packers beat would not qualify. The Packers defense gives up too many yards. During the first 6 games, they scored first and were able to control the pace. Most of the teams they beat did not feature high octane offenses, which meant the Packers defense could take risks to force TurnOvers.

In today's game, they face a Chicago Bears team that technically cannot hurt them on offense. The Bears are content to score 23 points and let their defense handle the rest.

The Packers beat the Bears 31 - 23 in this year's earlier matchup. The Bears defense has improved since early in the season. Their focus is to not allow big passing plays, which could be seen as a test for Aaron Rodgers.

Conversely, Green Bay can see this as an opportunity to put the past behind them and be content to mainly rush the ball. This will limit the amount of time their defense is on the field.

The numbers point to a win by Green Bay (.842) but not covering the spread, because the Packers are more comfortable in high scoring games. As such, look for that slim chance of a Bears victory (.158).

I take Bears (OVER) even though I see a Packers victory. Pick wisely, come back for Sunday's picks and until then watch out for the leader of the pack.

NFL 2015 Week 9 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Packers vs Panthers)

Green Bay At Carolina (+2.5; 46) could decide whether the race to the NFC playoffs has intrigue or becomes humdrum. For it to remain riveting, Green Bay has to lose. 

From there, it does not matter the outcome of the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the St. Louis Rams because 10 teams will fully be in play for the Wild Card.

A week ago, before the loss to the Denver Broncos, the Packers looked unbeatable, as if this season could go down as one talked about for generations. They had won 6 games by 10.5 points. They had a balanced team, where the running game paced them and helped them maintain leads.



Even Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was in on the act (160 yards in 6 games), while throwing it on everybody, averaging 8.16 Yard per Attempt , heading for roughly 4,000 yards for the season. Was Denver's defense the driving force to Rodgers's poor 3.5 Yards per Attempt performance? Or was it something that had been looming but hidden?

Mike Tyson famously and accurately quipped, "Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth." Until facing the Broncos, Green Bay had scored first in all of its games, even the come from behind win against the Seattle Seahawks.

The Carolina Panthers are more of a team that builds momentum as the game progresses. They are as likely to fall behind by 3 points as they are to take a 7 point lead.

Though the underdog, the Panthers have more than a puncher's chance to beat the Packers back into the playoff pack; they have Cam Newton.

Using the previous metrics, through 6 games, Cam was on his way to 3400 yards for the season and had 245 yards rushing.

Third in the NFL, Cam Newton averages 13 yards per completion and this is not due to his receivers' YAC (yard after catch). The Panthers use long passes to open up the running game and they lead the NFL in Rushing, where Green Bay's defense is near the bottom.

This is a toss-up for the win, with Carolina getting the slight nod because they are at home. The numbers break as Panthers (.526) to win by 7 points, and Packers (.474) to win by 5 points.

So, I take the Panthers (OVER). Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch which team triumphs.

Alex Smith, Time 4 Sum Aksion - NFL 2015 MNF 3

Tonight's Monday Night Football game of Kansas City At Green Bay (-5.5; 47.5) has all sorts of marketing angles, especially after both teams participated in two come-from-behind wins in their last game.

Unfortunately for the Kansas City Chiefs, they came out on the losing hand, mainly due to TurnOvers and the Referees extending the game in the last two minutes with some dubious calls.

The Chiefs have something major going for them -- their offense moved the ball well in both games, either in the Passing or Rushing game. Plus, their Defense has been solid.

The big question mark for the Chiefs is Alex Smith. Does he have what it takes to push to that next level?

On paper and just sheer visuals, Smith's counterpart, Aaron Rodgers is a better Quarterback. Rodgers's success is linked to a Green Bay Packers offensive system that calls on him to throw more and be accountable for all the mistakes, including taking a high number of Sacks.

For the Kansas City to beat Green Bay, they will need to score more by passing more.

The numbers favor the Packers to win by 7 points (.715) or the Chiefs to defy the odds and win by 4 points (.285).

So, I take Packers (Over).  Pick wisely, come back for Thursday's picks and enjoy this playlist.

NFL 2012, Week 2: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/23/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line
WEEK 2		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
Green Bay Packers		Chicago Bears	4.22		-1.28	39.0
Buffalo Bills		Kansas City Chiefs	-1.40		-1.50	53.0
Carolina Panthers		New Orleans Saints	1.89		9.78	44.0
Cincinnati Bengals		Cleveland Browns	5.79		0.65	52.0
Indianapolis Colts		Minnesota Vikings	11.20		5.91	48.0
Jacksonville Jaguars		Houston Texans	11.87		7.93	46.0
Miami Dolphins		Oakland Raiders	4.91		3.81	46.0
New England Patriots		Arizona Cardinals	-8.92		-6.58	42.0
New York Giants		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.50		-4.58	51.0
Philadelphia Eagles		Baltimore Ravens	6.19		8.31	54.0
St. Louis Rams		Washington Redskins	4.97		8.28	53.0
Seattle Seahawks		Dallas Cowboys	1.88		3.90	39.0
Pittsburgh Steelers		New York Jets	10.02		10.38	45.0
San Diego Chargers		Tennessee Titans	-11.08		-2.73	48.0
San Francisco 49ers		Detroit Lions	8.06		3.40	44.0
Atlanta Falcons		Denver Broncos	-3.83		-1.27	41.0

NFL 2012, Week 1: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)

9/22/2012		Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)
WEEK 1		NFL 2012 Season
		by Guichard Cadet
Home		Away	Hedging		Straight Line	Projected Total Score
New York Giants		Dallas Cowboys	-3.96		-3.26	49.0
Chicago Bears		Indianapolis Colts	-6.52		-4.37	38.0
Cleveland Browns		Philadelphia Eagles	14.44		7.47	41.0
New York Jets		Buffalo Bills	-2.31		-2.39	41.0
New Orleans Saints		Washington Redskins	-16.22		-9.26	54.0
Tennessee Titans		New England Patriots	11.27		5.99	53.0
Minnesota Vikings		Jacksonville Jaguars	-9.05		-5.78	36.0
Houston Texans		Miami Dolphins	-8.76		-5.59	43.0
Detroit Lions		St. Louis Rams	-19.92		-11.04	42.0
Kansas City Chiefs		Atlanta Falcons	15.28		7.96	35.0
Green Bay Packers		San Francisco 49ers	-11.64		-7.20	61.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Carolina Panthers	10.19		5.36	41.0
Arizona Cardinals		Seattle Seahawks	6.89		3.83	42.0
Denver Broncos		Pittsburgh Steelers	3.63		2.15	42.0
Baltimore Ravens		Cincinnati Bengals	-4.98		-3.77	46.0
Oakland Raiders		San Diego Chargers	4.30		2.52	46.0