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Monday, July 04, 2016

My WTA Wimbledon 2016 Finals Pick

The biggest disappointment was Garbine Muguruza losing in the second round. She lost early in the Mallorca Open but that could be seen as the hangover from her winning the French Open. What she learned in this Wimbledon is that other players see her as their potential “biggest” victory and are bringing their best.

A quick look at the numbers: 5 of the top 8 seeds made it to the Round of 16; only 3 of the next 8 seeds made it. That is where we get the two additional surprises, in addition to the two upsets I picked. Funny enough, the two slots did produce upstarts, just not the ones I picked.  I ended up with a 56% output of picks correctly selected. 

 Names in red were not my original selection, so I most likely will not pick them to go too far but I will give credit where it is due.

1 S. Williams
13 S. Kuznetsova
21 A. Pavlyuchenkova
27 C. Vandeweghe
3 A. Radwanska
19 D. Cibulkova
E. Makarova
E. Vesnina
5 S. Halep
9 M. Keys
M. Doi
4 A. Kerber
8 V. Williams
12 C. Suarez Navarro
Y. Shvedova
28 L. Safarova

1. S. Williams – No surprise here, as I have Serena winning it all.

13 S. Kuznetsova – Normally I would give her a bigger chance of beating Serena, but I did not like what I saw from Svetlana in the 3rd Round match against Sloane. She committed too many errors and her pace was not there.

21 A. Pavlyuchenkova – Anastasia has really upped her game and blew Timea Bacsinszky off the court. I am not certain she can impact Coco in the same manner.

27 C. Vandeweghe – Coco has really outclassed her three opponents. Her fitness and confidence will be tested in the next match and, if necessary, in the quarters.



3 A. Radwanska – Aga was almost a 2nd Round casualty and then cruised to victory in the 3rd Round. She’s facing Dominika Cibulkuva who has beaten her in their two most recent matches.

19 D. Cibulkova – She wants it and that’s why I love watching her play- the energy, enthusiasm and all-out effort. With Petra Kvitova losing her, this quarter of the draw is hers to take. I see Dominika facing Serena in the semifinals.

E. Makarova – I had Ekaterina losing to Kvitova but not yet sold she can maintain for two more matches.

E. Vesnina – It really is a toss-up for this match, as I had Elena losing to Andrea Petkovic.

5 S. Halep – Simona has been flying under the radar while playing some great tennis. After rain delays and court conditions derailed her at the French Open, she has returned and reached her past fitness level. Her game relies on speed and defense. This match is a toss-up against Madison Keys, with winner having a great chance to reach semifinals.

9 M. Keys – This match will tell us whether Madison is ready to remain in the Top 10, and even aspire to hold a higher ranking. She really needs her big serve to hold up, and Halep will test her endurance and focus. I give the advantage to Keys.

M. Doi – I give major kudos to Misaki, as I had her for a 1st Round casualty to Louisa Chirico, whom I picked as one of my upsets to reach the Round of 16. To get here, Doi avenged a recent loss to (15) Karolina Pliskova, and then took out Anna-Lena Friedsam. All three matches in straight sets.

4 A. Kerber – Angelique has yet to be tested this tournament and has not faced a ranked opponent. I had her losing to Irina-Camelia Begu, who lost in the 1st Round. I actually have this match as a toss-up, with the winner losing in the quarterfinals.

8 V. Williams -- For sentimental reasons I had Venus beating Muguruza to get to the Finals. Now with Muguruza out of the tournament, this is a strong likelihood.

12 C. Suarez Navarro – Carla always puts forth the effort. She will be facing Venus who has had some rest after two matches that went three sets.

Y. Shvedova – Yaroslava is another player who I picked to lose in the 1st Round, only to have her beat the player I picked to be an upset into the 4th Round.

28 L. Safarova – Lucie has had to battle through two three-set matches to get here and has benefited the most from Garbine Muguruza’s absence. I give her the veteran’s edge in this match.

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