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Sunday, September 08, 2019

US Open 2019 Men's Singles Finals Picks

US Open 2019 Semifinals Picks
Total: 1 Win; 1 Loss

Not many saw this as the potential matchup, not with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer sharing this half of the draw with Daniil Medvedev. Nadal was the favorite on the other side of the draw.

Medvedev D. (5) vs. [Nadal R.] (2) --  Much is being made of their lone meeting last month in Montreal (Canada Open/Rogers Cup) where Nadal won handily: 6-3; 6-0. Another set of numbers add context to today's matchup. Nadal has an 18-8 record in majors finals. Of those 8 losses, all but one is to Federer and Djokovic. Stan Wawrinka beat Nadal in the 2014 Australian Open.

Medvedev has shown an uncanny ability to mirror his opponent's game. He did this successfully against Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals. Watching Nadal's two recent opponents in this tournament, Medvedev could employ such a strategy. Both Diego Schwartzman and Matteo Berrettini pushed Nadal for the first two sets. In both cases one error  or bounce of the ball decided those sets. Though both went on to lose in straight sets, they provided - players not named Federer and Djokovic - a road map to beating Nadal.

The question is can Medvedev outmuscle Nadal in the middle of the court?

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