Week 12, 2011: Raiders vs. Bears by EvenMoney

Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears highlights a week where we are very wary of picking underdogs. So, we go to two seemingly evenly-matched teams that were not on our radar this season. Both, especially the Oakland Raiders, are having better than expected seasons. Since they are matched up in pivotal games for each of them, we figured it is time to look into the numbers. From there, project just how serious a threat they are come playoff time.

Courtesy of WILxCHARGERS

If they lose and the Denver Broncos win today, the Raiders will find themselves in a tie with the Broncos for the AFC West lead. This loss could also put their playoffs hope in jeopardy as the AFC second tier of playoff teams is crowded, with 5 other teams trying to secure 2 slots.

The Raiders need this win to convince many, including themselves, that they truly belong atop their division. A loss today could be the start of a four-game losing streak, or they can hold pace and finish by splitting their remaining 6 games for a 10-6 record.

Ironically the Raiders are facing what I see as their NFC counterpart, a team that has benefitted from a major slide by the Detroit Lions. This has allowed the Bears to climb into second place in the NFC North, behind the undefeated Green Bay Packers. But, unlike the Raiders, the remainder of the Bears schedule is relatively weak. A win today and they can easily win 4 of the 5 other remaining games, to finish the season at 12-4.

Besides benefitting from weak schedules, what are the Bears and Raiders doing correctly? They both put up lots of points and have enough strength in both the running and passing game. They do not rank highly in any individual category, with Oakland being the better statistical team, specifically in rushing (4.9 vs. 4.3 yards per rush; and 5.5 more rushes per game).

Defensively, they’re even with the Bears being a run-stopping, low-scoring defense, while the Raiders are a bend but don’t break model.

NFL PICKS Week 12

Raiders (-3) Over (41) – Though not a highlight of our analysis, the absence of Bears QuarterBack Jay Cutler will be the deciding factor because the Raiders will now be able place more emphasis on stopping the run.

11/27 4:05 ET     At Oakland         -3            Chicago                41

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/27/11 @ 2:00pm

Cardinals vs Saints – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Cardinals vs Saints meet Saturday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Divisional game that has the Arizona Cardinals as a 7 point underdog to the New Orleans Saints. If you are picking Against The Spread that is an easy choice. But the beauty of the NFL Playoffs is its NCAA March Madness quality in that loser goes home for good – one and done.

The New Orleans Saints looked like a machine, a Terminator of a team as it ran roughshod across the league. The Saints seemed poise for an undefeated season until the Dallas Cowboys beat them.

FULL ARTICLE

Publish Post

Packers vs Cardinals – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Packers vs Cardinals meet on Sunday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game and is one of 3 matchups that feature teams who faced each other in NFL Week 17. For various reasons, the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals game is not the one you want to put your money on.

The Arizona Cardinals have Quarterback Kurt Warner and that along with his receivers are reasons enough to fear.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money's NFL Playoffs Scenarios 2010, NFL Power Rankings

The NFL Playoffs Picture is clear on one side and muddy on the other. For the NFC playoffs, three teams are vying for 2 Wild Card seeds: Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. While the AFC playoffs have 8 teams that are still mathematically capable of getting the 2 Wild Card Seeds. The Power Rankings below gives you a snapshot of who we think clear the hurdle, not based on tiebreaker. Eliminated teams are ranked below "Next Year".

FULL ARTICLE

Cowboys Losing In December Boosts Packers vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football – NFL Picks

The Dallas Cowboys losing in December has become part of the landscape, no matter how much team owner Jerry Jones wants to downplay it. Sunday’s loss to the Giants furthers the importance of tonight’s Packers vs. Ravens match-up on Monday Night Football.

Before Sunday’s Cowboys’ loss, the common stance was that of a physical game in wintry Wisconsin. The Packers can now aim for a first round bye if they win at least 4 of their next 5 games. They have reason to be optimistic based on the following chart which shows how the Dallas Cowboys fare in December games.

FULL ARTICLE