NFL 2015 NFC Wild Card (Seahawks vs Vikings)

The Seattle Seahawks lost six games this season. Two of these losses were to the St. Louis Rams, a division rival that seemed to have Seattle's number.

The other four were to teams that made the playoffs. In three of those four losses, the Seahawks led or tied going into the fourth quarter. In the other game, division rival, the Arizona Cardinals dominated the Seattle for most of that game. The Seahawks returned the favor in Week 17.

This playoff matchup is a repeat of a Week 13 contest where the Seattle Seahawks demolished the Minnesota Vikings. The final score was 38-7, and justifies the outlook for this meeting: Seattle At Minnesota (+4; 39.5).

The Vikings defense will determine this game. The Vikings have lost five of six games when they gave up 20 or more points. In their other 10 games, all wins, the opponent scored less than 20 points.

Minnesota also led at the half in all these games, except once when they were tied with the Chicago Bears. This was their only come from behind victory -- they trailed at the start of the fourth quarter.

The Seahawks have scored 29 or more points in 7 of 8 games, and have not scored less than 17 points in a loss. So, can the Vikings offense support its defense with 21 points?

The numbers favor the Seahawks (.737) because they have the defense to match their explosive offense.

So, I take the Seahawks (OVER). Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

NFL 2015 AFC Wild Card (Steelers vs Bengals)

Heading into their Week 14 matchup, these two teams were my choices to come out of the AFC. With them facing each other in a Wild Card game, this lessens that likelihood. The next key factor is the injury, during that game, to Quarterback Andy Dalton which has caused the Cincinnati Bengals to be the underdog at home. 

Pittsburgh At Cincinnati (+3; 45.5) is an early referendum on AJ McCarron. Since McCarron replaced Dalton during the game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bengals have won two and lost two. The loss to the Denver Broncos is why they did not earn a bye.

As a starter, McCarron's play has been steady but his lack of experience and big strike capability will likely hinder the Bengals in these playoffs.

Even with Dalton starting, the Steelers have had success against the Bengals -- a record of 6 Wins and 2 Losses coming into this season. Early this season, the Steelers lost to the Bengals in a low-scoring affair. Since that game, Pittsburgh has scored 28 or more points, on way to a 6-2 record.

For Cincinnati, its defense has been the steady force since that game. The Bengals defense has held opponents to under 21 points in 7 of 9 games. To beat the Steelers, the Bengals will need to score 24 or more points.

Against the Spread (ATS) this game is a toss-up - a battle between Bengals defense and Steelers offense.

So, I take the Steelers (OVER) because the Steelers defense is not likely to give up over 21 points to AJ McCarron. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

NFL 2015 AFC Wild Card (Chiefs vs Texans)

Early this season, I was optimistic on the Kansas City Chiefs and their chance to win the AFC West division. Though that did not occur, the Chiefs showed  great resiliency by winning their final 10 games of the season. This is after losing 5 games in a row.

The Chiefs opened the season by beating the Houston Texans - score of 27 - 20. Though I felt that the Texans were facing desperate times as a franchise, I must admit my surprise in how they turned their season around. The Texans won 7 of their final 9 games to win the AFC South division.

Houston played through controversy and injuries at the quarterback position but it was their defense that righted the ship.

In the final 9 games, the Texans held opponents to under 18 points for 7 wins.

The Chiefs did the same in 8 of their final 10 winning games. Knowing we will witness two formidable defenses, what are the key points? The Chiefs defense is more explosive, particularly when it comes to the pass rush (Sacks) and Interceptions.

Brian Hoyer threw 7 INTS in 11 games, which on a percentage basis places him in the middle of the pack for starting quarterbacks. Where he does excel is that he throws nearly 2 TDs per game, which places him at the top third for starting quarterbacks.

Level of competition faced and performance against top teams do matter in determining which offense is more potent. Statistically the Texans offense rates better than the Chiefs, except in two key areas: points scored and rushing yards.

With the matchup being Kansas City At Houston (+3; 40) the numbers favor the Chiefs at .789.

So, I take the Chiefs (UNDER), either looking at a Chiefs blowout, or a grind out defensive struggle. Pick wisely, and check out the pick for the other playoff games.

EvenMoney’s NFL 2015 – End of Season Rankings

Playoff Teams in Red

Composite Rank = average rank, across four categories

Position Rank	TEAM	Composite Rank
1	Carolina Panthers	2.25
2	Arizona Cardinals	3.25
3	Cincinnati Bengals	4.25
4	Seattle Seahawks	4.25
5	New England Patriots	5.00
6	Kansas City Chiefs	6.00
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	8.25
8	Minnesota Vikings	9.25
9	Denver Broncos	9.50
10	New York Jets	9.50
11	Green Bay Packers	11.75
12	Houston Texans	13.50
13	Washington Redskins	13.50
14	Buffalo Bills	13.75
15	Atlanta Falcons	16.75
16	Oakland Raiders	18.25
17	New York Giants	18.75
18	Detroit Lions	19.25
19	St. Louis Rams	20.00
20	Philadelphia Eagles	20.25
21	New Orleans Saints	20.75
22	Indianapolis Colts	22.00
23	Chicago Bears	22.00
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23.50
25	Jacksonville Jaguars	23.50
26	Miami Dolphins	24.75
27	Baltimore Ravens	25.00
28	San Diego Chargers	25.75
29	Dallas Cowboys	26.50
30	San Francisco 49ers	27.25
31	Tennessee Titans	29.25
32	Cleveland Browns	30.50

NFL 2015 Week 16 - EvenMoney's Game of the Week (Patriots vs Jets)

New England At NY Jets (-3; 45) has strong playoff implications for both teams. A win for the New England Patriots mean they clinch home field throughout the playoffs. A New York Jets loss does not eliminate them from the playoffs.

This matchup is a chance at redemption for a Jets team that took a lead into the fourth quarter when these two teams met in Week 7. New York led until halfway through the fourth quarter, and then the defense showed the gaps and tendencies that would be exposed in three of the next four games.

Sitting at 5-5, with 4 losses in the AFC division, the Jets have turned their season around. Winners of their last 4 games, the Jets have found a great balance on both sides of the ball. During this stretch, the Jets have averaged 27.5 points, while giving up 16 points.

Though the level of competition was not near what they will face today against the Patriots, the same could be said of the three losses the Jets had after losing to the Patriots.

After beating the Jets in Week 7, the Patriots went on to win 4 straight games. Just as they looked to be streaking toward another undefeated season, the Patriots lost two games in a row. They have since won two straight games but the spectre of dominance is not the same.

The Patriots have battled injuries to key players and are likely resting some to avoid injuries this late in the season. Even with these injuries, the Patriots are still good for their season low mark of 20 points.

The question for this game lies on the Patriots defense, which is giving up less than 20 points over the entire season. This average is a hard split where 7 games fall above that scoring mark, and 7 do not. This says more about level of competition than it does about the Patriots defense's consistency. 

The New York Jets have scored 20+ points in 10 of their 14 games - 8 Wins, 2 Losses. Their defense has held opponents to 20 points or less in 8 games -- all wins.

With the points, this game is a toss-up, a push, where the even money goes to the home team, the Jets  (.526).

So, I take the Jets (UNDER), either looking at a defensive battle or blowout. Pick wisely, come back for Monday's pick and until then watch to see who's the winner.