o Analyze results, identify trends and predict outcomes for NFL, NBA, WTA and ATP matches.

o Assign player fantasy sports value, measure player efficiency, and compare and rank teams across eras.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Even Money's NCCA Bracket Rankings

I'm running with the model I created last year (2010) for the NCAA Tournament.

It picked 26 out of 32 First Round match-ups, and 9 out of 16 Second Round match-ups. Then, the upsets came and I only got one Final Four team (Duke).

All you have to do is go through the bracket and pick the "higher ranked" team, regardless of seeding. As you will see, the top ranked teams are expected to go through, since the model is straight math and I've not geared it to pick upsets. Upsets come into play when the selection committee over/under-estimate a team.

Do tweak the selections as you see fit! Let me know how it goes for you!


Rank Team Name Conference Ten Scale / Win
1 Kansas  Big 12           8.00
2 Ohio St.  Big Ten           8.00
3 Duke  Atlantic Coast           7.20
4 San Diego St.  Mountain West           7.00
5 Utah St.  Western Athletic           6.50
6 Pittsburgh  Big East           6.40
7 BYU  Mountain West           6.30
8 Texas  Big 12           6.00
9 Arizona  Pacific 10           6.00
10 Notre Dame  Big East           6.00
11 Florida  Southeastern           5.80
12 North Carolina  Atlantic Coast           5.80
13 Syracuse  Big East           5.80
14 Belmont  Atlantic Sun           5.60
15 Purdue  Big Ten           5.60
16 Cincinnati  Big East           5.40
17 Connecticut  Big East           5.40
18 Kentucky  Southeastern           5.40
19 Richmond  Atlantic 10           5.20
20 Louisville  Big East           5.20
21 Texas A&M  Big 12           5.10
22 Wisconsin  Big Ten           5.00
23 Long Island  Northeast           4.80
24 Temple  Atlantic 10           4.80
25 Old Dominion  Colonial           4.60
26 Xavier  Atlantic 10           4.60
27 Vanderbilt  Southeastern           4.60
28 Washington  Pacific 10           4.60
29 Missouri  Big 12           4.50
30 George Mason  Colonial           4.40
31 UNLV  Mountain West           4.40
32 Memphis  Conference USA           4.40
33 UCLA  Pacific 10           4.40
34 Kansas St.  Big 12           4.30
35 Florida St.  Atlantic Coast           4.20
36 Georgetown  Big East           4.20
37 Princeton  Ivy           4.10
38 Gonzaga  West Coast           4.10
39 UAB  Conference USA           4.00
40 Georgia  Southeastern           4.00
41 Villanova  Big East           4.00
42 St. John's (NY)  Big East           4.00
43 Clemson  Atlantic Coast           4.00
44 Bucknell  Patriot           3.80
45 West Virginia  Big East           3.80
46 Hampton  Mid Eastern           3.50
47 Oakland  Summit           3.50
48 Michigan  Big Ten           3.30
49 Morehead St.  OVC           3.20
50 Marquette  Big East           3.20
51 Illinois  Big Ten           3.20
52 Butler  Horizon           3.10
53 Tennessee  Southeastern           3.00
54 Southern California  Pacific 10           3.00
55 Penn St.  Big Ten           3.00
56 Michigan St.  Big Ten           2.90
57 VCU  Colonial           2.80
58 Akron  Mid American           2.50
59 Indiana St.  Missouri Valley           2.50
60 Northern Colo.  Big Sky           2.40
61 Wofford  Southern           2.20
62 Boston U.  America East           2.00
63 St. Peter's  Metro Atlantic           1.80
64 UNC Asheville  Big South           1.30
65 UTSA  Southland           1.30
66 UC Santa Barbara  Big West           1.20
67 UALR  Sun Belt           0.80
68 Alabama St.  Southwestern           0.20

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

BPM NBA Fantasy Rankings Season 2010-11

Win your NBA FANTASY LEAGUE by using BPM's Tools Point Assessment which allots a specific tool to a player based on whether the player reached the league average for: Three-Point Shooting, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, and Blocks.

Download here for All Players, including incoming Rookies:
https://www.regnow.com/softsell/nph-softsell.cgi?item=30550-1


Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant waits for play to resume in their first-round Western Conference, best-of-seven playoff series against the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center in Los Angeles on April 18, 2010. The Lakers defeated the Thunder 87-79.  UPI/Jim Ruymen Photo via Newscom


Rank
Player
 Pts/GM
Tools Name
Tools
 Tools Output
1
Kevin Durant
   30.15
 TRSB
4
   120.59
2
LeBron James
   29.71
 RASB
4
   118.84
3
Dwyane Wade
   26.56
 ASB
3
     79.68
4
Dirk Nowitzki
   25.02
 TRB
3
     75.07
5
Gerald Wallace
   18.24
 TRSB
4
     72.95
6
Danny Granger
   24.15
 TSB
3
     72.44
7
Josh Smith
   15.67
 RASB
4
     62.67
8
Chauncey Billups
   19.55
 TAS
3
     58.64
9
Carlos Boozer
   19.47
 RAS
3
     58.42
10
Kevin Garnett
   14.35
 RASB
4
     57.39
11
Chris Paul
   18.69
 TAS
3
     56.07
12
Deron Williams
   18.67
 TAS
3
     56.01
13
Pau Gasol
   18.31
 RAB
3
     54.92
14
Paul Pierce
   18.25
 TAS
3
     54.76
15
Kobe Bryant
   26.99
 AS
2
     53.97
16
Tim Duncan
   17.88
 RAB
3
     53.65
17
Stephen Curry
   17.49
 TAS
3
     52.46
18
Andrea Bargnani
   17.20
 TRB
3
     51.60
19
Monta Ellis
   25.48
 AS
2
     50.97
20
Jason Terry
   16.62
 TAS
3
     49.87
21
Manu Ginobili
   16.49
 TAS
3
     49.48
22
Chris Bosh
   23.97
 RB
2
     47.94
23
Brandon Jennings
   15.49
 TAS
3
     46.46
24
Amar'e Stoudemire
   23.12
 RB
2
     46.24
25
Gilbert Arenas
   22.56
 AS
2
     45.13
26
Michael Beasley
   14.82
 RSB
3
     44.46
27
Carlos Delfino
   11.00
 TRAS
4
     44.00
28
Troy Murphy
   14.58
 TRS
3
     43.75
29
Joe Johnson
   21.30
 TA
2
     42.61
30
Andray Blatche
   14.11
 RSB
3
     42.33






*Qualified: includes all NBA Players who logged 200 or more minutes during the most recent NBA season.






Download here for All Players, including incoming Rookies:


Ball Player Money sports analytics system defined:

Tools Point Assessment:



Thursday, September 09, 2010

Even Money’s NFL PICKS: Saints vs Vikings

Saints defeated the Vikings in last season’s NFC Championship game - an overtime thriller, by the score of 31-28. The Saints went on to beat the Indianapolis Colts to win Superbowl XLIV.

Though repeating as Superbowl Champions is no small feat, the Saints bring back most of their core, including Quaterback Drew Brees. Look for the Saints to continue with their offensive prowess, where they scored 24+ points in their first 13 games last season. They were 5-0 ATS when favored by less than 7 points, showing they performed well when “questioned”.

Sunday, February 07, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV – Saints vs Colts – Even Money’s Picks

Saints vs Colts is the matchup for Super Bowl XLIV (Super Bowl 44). Though this game between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts has not received the normal fanfare that recent Super Bowls have, this contest features two marquee Quarter Backs: this NFL season’s MVP Peyton Manning, and Pro Bowler Drew Brees.

To win this game, the Saints will need a big game from Running Backs Reggie Bush and Mike Bell. For Bush, his contribution will be the all-around game he provides, particularly field position off of kick returns. The New Orleans Saints might want to follow the blueprint they used to march all over the New England Patriots in a NFL Week 11.

FULL ARTICLE

Sunday, January 24, 2010

Saints Defeat Vikings in NFC championship game 2010; Head to Super Bowl XLIV

Saints vs Vikings final score of 31-28 clinches the NFC championship game 2010 for the New Orleans Saints. The Saints head into Super Bowl XLIV (44) in Miami, FL as a +2.5 underdog (early lines) where they face the Indianapolis Colts and NFL MVP Peyton Manning.

This matchup lived up to its billing and went into overtime tied at 28-28. It came down to my prediction that a field goal would decide it.

FULL ARTICLE

Colts Defeat Jets vs Colts in AFC championship game 2010; Head to Super Bowl XLIV

Jets vs Colts - AFC Championship game 2010 result: 30-17. The Indianapolis Colts defeated the New York Jets by displaying the offensive firepower they are known for. Trailing at the half (17-13), the Colts scored 17 points in the second half as Quarterback Peyton Manning threw 3 Touchdowns for the game – one to Pierre Garcon. The Colts advance to Super Bowl XLIV (44) in Miami. FL where they are the early favorites at -2.5 points.
The turning points were the injury to Jets Corner Back Donald Strickland, 2 passes to Austin Collie (one for a touchdown), and an early second half injury to Jets Running Back Shonn Greene.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s Picks: Saints vs Vikings NFC championship game 2010

Saints vs Vikings is the highly anticipated NFC Championship game that features two high-powered offenses that scored 24+ points in all their wins. The Minnesota Vikings lost only 1 game where they scored that much and all 3 games they did not. The New Orleans Saints lost their last 3 games of the season and they scored less than 24 points in each of them.

With each offense featuring a Pro-Bowl Quarterback in Brett Favre and Drew Brees, the game will come down to which defense makes the early stop.

FULL ARTICLE

Even Money’s Picks: Jets vs Colts AFC championship game 2010

Jets vs Colts in the AFC Championship game? What were those odds when the season started? For the New York Jets to beat the Indianapolis Colts, they need to look at the film of 3 games. The New York Jets defense is comparable to the Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens; and to a certain degree, they share offensive philosophies, especially with the Ravens.

Though the Jets have to play a conservative offensive game, the Indianapolis Colts failed to score 27+ points in only 4 games this season.

FULL ARTICLE

Friday, January 22, 2010

Will Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts Cakewalk In NFL Playoffs 2010?

Jets vs Colts should not be close though many pundits are giving the New York Jets a chance to win this NFL Playoffs 2010 matchup. Do they not realize that the pressure they claim Peyton Manning is par for the course? The Indianapolis Colts have been a dominant franchise since Tony Dungy arrived.

The Colts won 10 games that first season (2002) and have won 12 games for 7 straight years – doing it this year with a new coach.

FULL ARTICLE

Will New York Jets Fly Over Colts In NFL Playoffs 2010?

Jets vs Colts shows no matter how much people claim that defense wins championships that deep down they “dig the long ball”. For the New York Jets to win the AFC Championship and beat the Indianapolis Colts in this NFL Playoffs 2010 matchup, they’re going to need Quarterback Mark Sanchez to go deep at least once - then they will make it to Super Bowl XLIV.

The New York Jets are not an enigma. They do not try to trick teams. They prefer to run the ball and have their defense control field position.

FULL ARTICLE

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Will New Orleans Saints ‘Brees’ Through NFL Playoffs 2010?

Vikings vs Saints will determine career and a legacy. For the New Orleans Saints, a win in the NFC Championship (NFL Playoffs 2010) means the capital “S” can never again be left out of their team name. If Drew Brees wins a Super Bowl XLIV then any future passing numbers and wins he puts up has his career discussed in Hall of Fame terms.

The Saints will win if they make the first half more about the running game for both teams and lessen the number of times Brett Favre passes the ball.

FULL ARTICLE

Will Favre, Vikings Win NFL Playoffs NFC Championship?

Vikings vs Saints is what it comes down to in this year’s NFC Championship game. This marquee NFL playoff matchup could be Brett Favre’s final NFL game. Favre and the Minnesota Vikings will win the NFC Championship and head into Super Bowl XLIV only if they are able to keep the New Orleans Saints from scoring 24 points. The Vikings have shown that they can be stopped when playing a team with a good defense but they have not proven they can stop a potent offense.

FULL ARTICLE

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Jets vs Chargers – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS 2010 PICKS

Jets vs Chargers on paper is the most lopsided matchup of this weekend’s NFL Playoffs Divisional Round games. The winner faces the Indianapolis Colts. The betting line has the New York Jets as a +8 underdog to the San Diego Chargers which is comparable to 2 of the other matchups. But, very few people think the Jets can pull out an outright win.

The New York Jets are not your cuddly, underdog Cinderella story. They are a team led by a boastful coach (Rex Ryan) who has handed his team its Super Bowl itinerary including the parade date.

FULL ARTICLE

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Cowboys vs Vikings – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Cowboys vs Vikings is the early game on Sunday for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round. It features a Minnesota Vikings team that rose early to prominence in the NFC, and a Dallas Cowboys team that finished strong. This is the game to keep your money away from but it might be the most profitable if you make the right choice.

The Dallas Cowboys silenced their critics who claimed they could not win in December by relying on a defensive unit that gave up more than 21 points only 2 times this season.


FULL ARTICLE

Ravens vs Colts – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Ravens vs Colts is the primetime matchup on Saturday for the NFL Playoffs Divisional Round between two teams whose identities reside on different ends of the NFL spectrum. The Indianapolis Colts are an offensive force with a steady defense, while the Baltimore Ravens dominate on defense and ask the offense not to lose the game.

The Ravens have shown that they can disrupt any offense, including the Colts who they lost to in NFL Week 10 – final score: 17-15.

FULL ARTICLE

Cardinals vs Saints – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Cardinals vs Saints meet Saturday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Divisional game that has the Arizona Cardinals as a 7 point underdog to the New Orleans Saints. If you are picking Against The Spread that is an easy choice. But the beauty of the NFL Playoffs is its NCAA March Madness quality in that loser goes home for good – one and done.

The New Orleans Saints looked like a machine, a Terminator of a team as it ran roughshod across the league. The Saints seemed poise for an undefeated season until the Dallas Cowboys beat them.

FULL ARTICLE


Saturday, January 09, 2010

Packers vs Cardinals – Even Money’s NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS

Packers vs Cardinals meet on Sunday in a NFC NFL Playoffs Wild Card game and is one of 3 matchups that feature teams who faced each other in NFL Week 17. For various reasons, the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals game is not the one you want to put your money on.

The Arizona Cardinals have Quarterback Kurt Warner and that along with his receivers are reasons enough to fear.


FULL ARTICLE