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Sunday, September 23, 2012

NFL 2012, Week 2: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)



9/23/2012

Hedging the Straight-Line



WEEK 2

NFL 2012 Season
















Home

Away
Hedging

Straight Line
Projected Total Score
Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears
4.22

-1.28
39.0
Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs
-1.40

-1.50
53.0
Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints
1.89

9.78
44.0
Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns
5.79

0.65
52.0
Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota Vikings
11.20

5.91
48.0
Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans
11.87

7.93
46.0
Miami Dolphins

Oakland Raiders
4.91

3.81
46.0
New England Patriots

Arizona Cardinals
-8.92

-6.58
42.0
New York Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-0.50

-4.58
51.0
Philadelphia Eagles

Baltimore Ravens
6.19

8.31
54.0
St. Louis Rams

Washington Redskins
4.97

8.28
53.0
Seattle Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys
1.88

3.90
39.0
Pittsburgh Steelers

New York Jets
10.02

10.38
45.0
San Diego Chargers

Tennessee Titans
-11.08

-2.73
48.0
San Francisco 49ers

Detroit Lions
8.06

3.40
44.0
Atlanta Falcons

Denver Broncos
-3.83

-1.27
41.0

NFL 2012, Week 1: Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)



9/22/2012

Hedging the Straight-Line (Projections)



WEEK 1

NFL 2012 Season















Home

Away
Hedging

Straight Line
Projected Total Score
New York Giants

Dallas Cowboys
-3.96

-3.26
49.0
Chicago Bears

Indianapolis Colts
-6.52

-4.37
38.0
Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles
14.44

7.47
41.0
New York Jets

Buffalo Bills
-2.31

-2.39
41.0
New Orleans Saints

Washington Redskins
-16.22

-9.26
54.0
Tennessee Titans

New England Patriots
11.27

5.99
53.0
Minnesota Vikings

Jacksonville Jaguars
-9.05

-5.78
36.0
Houston Texans

Miami Dolphins
-8.76

-5.59
43.0
Detroit Lions

St. Louis Rams
-19.92

-11.04
42.0
Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons
15.28

7.96
35.0
Green Bay Packers

San Francisco 49ers
-11.64

-7.20
61.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers
10.19

5.36
41.0
Arizona Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks
6.89

3.83
42.0
Denver Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers
3.63

2.15
42.0
Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals
-4.98

-3.77
46.0
Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers
4.30

2.52
46.0

Sunday, December 04, 2011

Week 13, 2011: Falcons vs. Texans by EvenMoney


Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans is another game that helps bring this NFL season into better focus because it is an inter-conference matchup that will shed light on whether it was AFC or NFC teams that faced a tougher road within their own conference.


 Courtesy of BestSportHighlights

The Atlanta Falcons are one of four teams battling for 2 remaining playoff spot. They also have a chance to win their division should they win 2 more games than the New Orleans Saints do. For now, let’s focus on the fact they cannot afford to lose many or any of their remaining 5 games. A win today goes a long way to propelling them to the playoffs and/or a shot at the NFC South division, since one of their remaining games is against the Saints.

The Falcons been inconsistent all year and have only beaten one team contending for the playoffs – the Detroit Lions. At the same time, the Falcons are good at everything, except Pass Defense. They rank in the top 15 in almost all categories – top 10 in some. When it comes to Pass Defense, they rank 23rd with their main problem being getting Sacks. Other than that, the Falcons do enough to allow their balanced offense to put up 23.5 PPG (points per game), offsetting the 20.2 PPG they give up.

On the other side of the field, the Houston Texans have a two-game lead in their division, and unless they suffer a late season losing streak, they are guaranteed a playoff spot. The Texans also have only beaten one opponent that is in playoff contention – the Pittsburgh Steelers. Unlike the Falcons, they are leading their division and will most likely qualify for the playoffs by simply winning 2 of their remaining 5 games.

Another bit of difference between the two teams is that the Texans are ranked 1st on Defense (4th for Rushing; 2nd for Passing). They are 2nd in Sacks and 1st in Defensive Pass Percentage. When it comes to Rushing, the Texans Defense is ranked Top 5 in each major category, except Average Yards per Rush (4.2). They also give up only 16.3 PPG.

The Texans feature a Top 10 ranked offense, whose goal is to run over their opponents. They score 26.6 PPG on 380 YPG (yards), with 152 of those yards from their Rushing game. They lead the league in Rushes per game and are second in Rushing TDs per game. Though they do have a decent Passing game (ranked 16th in the league), this matchup is clearly on whether the Texans Rushing offense will stand up against the Falcons Rushing defense – ranked 2nd in the league.


NFL PICKS Week 13
Texans (+1.5) Over (38) – It comes down to Matt Ryan against the Houston Texans Defense.

12/4   1:00 ET     Atlanta                 -1.5         At Houston         38
http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml @11/27/11 @ 11:30am

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Week 12, 2011: Raiders vs. Bears by EvenMoney


Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears highlights a week where we are very wary of picking underdogs. So, we go to two seemingly evenly-matched teams that were not on our radar this season. Both, especially the Oakland Raiders, are having better than expected seasons. Since they are matched up in pivotal games for each of them, we figured it is time to look into the numbers. From there, project just how serious a threat they are come playoff time.
If they lose and the Denver Broncos win today, the Raiders will find themselves in a tie with the Broncos for the AFC West lead. This loss could also put their playoffs hope in jeopardy as the AFC second tier of playoff teams is crowded, with 5 other teams trying to secure 2 slots.

The Raiders need this win to convince many, including themselves, that they truly belong atop their division. A loss today could be the start of a four-game losing streak, or they can hold pace and finish by splitting their remaining 6 games for a 10-6 record.

Ironically the Raiders are facing what I see as their NFC counterpart, a team that has benefitted from a major slide by the Detroit Lions. This has allowed the Bears to climb into second place in the NFC North, behind the undefeated Green Bay Packers. But, unlike the Raiders, the remainder of the Bears schedule is relatively weak. A win today and they can easily win 4 of the 5 other remaining games, to finish the season at 12-4.

Besides benefitting from weak schedules, what are the Bears and Raiders doing correctly? They both put up lots of points and have enough strength in both the running and passing game. They do not rank highly in any individual category, with Oakland being the better statistical team, specifically in rushing (4.9 vs. 4.3 yards per rush; and 5.5 more rushes per game).

Defensively, they’re even with the Bears being a run-stopping, low-scoring defense, while the Raiders are a bend but don’t break model.


NFL PICKS Week 12
Raiders (-3) Over (41) – Though not a highlight of our analysis, the absence of Bears QuarterBack Jay Cutler will be the deciding factor because the Raiders will now be able place more emphasis on stopping the run.

11/27 4:05 ET     At Oakland         -3            Chicago                41

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Week 11, 2011: Quick Underdogs


These underdogs teams will not win but are very bad matchups for the favorites.


Courtesy of SportsAddict2324

Favorite
Line
Underdog
At Atlanta
-6.5
Tennessee
At Baltimore
-7
Cincinnati
At Detroit
-7
Carolina
At San Francisco
-10
Arizona
At New England
-15
Kansas City